Polls and their impact on election

Although polls serve a purpose they are usually incorrect as a number of factors can affect the final outcome of the elections being polled.

The 2016 election in the United States clearly demonstrates how inaccurate polls could be. The majority of the polls had predicted that Hilary Clinton was a clear winner of the Presidency. When the votes finally tallied that prediction proved to be incorrect.

The 2008 election in Barbados as polled by Cadres was another example of polls proving incorrect. The same Cadres are now saying that the 2018 Grenada election could be won by the NNP. However, there was a caveat to the statement in that the prediction indicated that NNP supporters could be complacent and therefore in the final analysis victory could go to the NDC.

Is it that Cadres are unsure of what the final result could bring and are therefore covering themselves should the prediction prove incorrect?The outcome of the current elections would to a large extent depend on the more than thirty percent of the electorate who have not indicated their preference for any of the political parties. That statistic must be troubling for the incumbent NNP as there is considerable doubt that they would be able to attract any significant portion of these voters.

It is not practical to judge how the large sector of the voting population would ultimately cast their votes.

In a poll conducted by Cadres in 2011 they enunciated the following: “This is a useful analysis which demonstrates that a majority of Grenadians are MORE likely to support NDC without Tillman Thomas at the helm and an even greater proportion of Grenadians are MORE likely to support the NNP without Mitchell at the helm”.

NDC is without Thomas at the helm while NNP continues to move along with Mitchell. There is every chance therefore that the over thirty percent of the electorate who have not indicated any preference would in the final analysis support the NDC as they did in 2008.

March 13 would give the answer to the large pool of voters who will in the final analysis determine the outcome of the elections.

The Poll Doubter

Tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Comments are closed.